Study tests aftershock forecasting after Al Hoceima and Haouz quakes

A recent seismic study examined whether data recorded in the first hours after major earthquakes in Morocco can be used to estimate the likelihood of strong aftershocks.
The research drew on four sequences: three in Al Hoceima in 1994, 2004 and 2016, and one in Haouz in 2023.
The model uses the Gutenberg-Richter and Omori-Utsu laws to describe the link between the number and magnitude of quakes and the decay of aftershocks.
In one scenario, the probability of a magnitude 5 or higher shock in the following three hours was calculated from the first three hours.
Values vary: under 10 percent in 1994, roughly 20 to 30 percent in 2004 and 2016, and close to 10 percent in Haouz.
The researchers stress this is risk estimation after the main shock, not earthquake prediction, and that the probabilities alone cannot guide field decisions.