Study calculates aftershock probability after Al Hoceima and Haouz quakes

A recent seismic study concludes that data from the first hours after major earthquakes in Morocco can be used to estimate the probability of strong aftershocks, based on four sequences: three in Al Hoceima in 1994, 2004 and 2016, and one in Haouz in 2023.
Researchers used the Gutenberg-Richter and Omori-Utsu laws to test the probability of exceeding a given magnitude within a set period.
In one scenario, the probability of a magnitude 5 or higher shock in the following three hours was calculated from the first three hours.
Values differ: under 10 percent in Al Hoceima 1994, about 20 to 30 percent in 2004 and 2016, and close to 10 percent in Haouz before rising as the period was extended.
The authors see such models as an aid to crisis management, though not sufficient on their own for field decisions.